A Léger poll commissioned by Le Devoir and published Friday, June 5, 2026, confirms a shift that observers of Quebec politics have seen coming since winter: the Parti Québécois (PQ), considered moribund less than three years ago, would now capture 36% of voting intentions among Quebecers expressing a preference, compared to 19% for the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) of outgoing Premier François Legault. The Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) moves up to 23%, Québec solidaire stagnates at 12%.
Collapse of one cycle, beginning of another
The sequence is brutal for the CAQ. Elected triumphantly in 2018, re-elected in 2022 with 90 out of 125 seats, François Legault's party is now paying the price for three accumulated wear-and-tear factors: a controversial health system reform that has not reduced waiting lists, persistent tensions with Ottawa over immigration and infrastructure funding, and an identity debate that has gradually shifted to a terrain—the defense of French and Quebec autonomy—where the PQ naturally finds its historical niche.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (PSPP), leader of the Parti Québécois since 2020, embodies this repositioning with formidable effectiveness. Where the PQ had tired itself out defending a frozen sovereignist roadmap, it has managed to reframe the question of independence within a contemporary framework: demographics, immigration, budget negotiations with Ottawa, trade agreements. The referendum on sovereignty promised in the first mandate is now an integral part of the electoral contract.
Key figures from the Léger poll
- 36% voting intentions for the PQ (+4 points in one month).
- 23% for the PLQ.
- 19% for the CAQ (-3 points in one month, historic low for the mandate).
- 12% for Québec solidaire.
- 42% of Quebecers would declare themselves 'in favor of a referendum' within two years (vs 36% in January).
- October 2026: next Quebec general elections.
A Francophonie in mirror
The Quebec scenario resonates beyond the Saint Lawrence River. In Paris, the potential return of the PQ to power, and even more so the hypothesis of a third referendum on sovereignty, is being closely monitored at the Quai d'Orsay. France, which maintains a direct institutional relationship with Quebec—unique among foreign capitals—should, by doctrine, observe the 'non-interference and non-indifference' principle laid out by De Gaulle in 1967. A flexible diplomatic formula, which has never prevented Paris from being Quebec's attentive ear in its dealings with Ottawa.
In Brussels, the possibility of a sovereign Quebec technically reopens a file that European officials from the EEAS have already studied: Quebec's commercial status within the CETA framework, international recognition, potential integration into the broader institutional Francophonie. No decision is, of course, on the agenda—but the notes exist.
What remains for Legault to play
François Legault, Premier for nearly eight years, must now contend with a political equation that is new for him: reconquering a moderate nationalist electorate that has, in large part, shifted towards the PQ. The Girard budget of March 2026—marked by an announced return to balance by 2028—was not enough. A cabinet reshuffle is expected before the end of June, which could include the departure of worn-out figures and the promotion of younger profiles to embody the 'comeback'.
To remember
- PQ at 36%, CAQ at 19% in the Léger poll of June 5, 2026.
- Quebec elections scheduled for October 2026.
- Paul St-Pierre Plamondon promises a referendum on sovereignty in his first mandate.
- 42% of Quebecers in favor of a referendum within two years.
- France, French-speaking Belgium, and Brussels are following the situation with diplomatic attention.
- A cabinet reshuffle in Quebec is expected before the end of June.
