A little over a year before the French presidential election, polls from April 12, 2026, confirm a fundamental trend: Édouard Philippe, leader of the Horizons party and former Prime Minister, continues his spectacular rise in voting intentions, without, however, managing to overtake the Rassemblement National duo, Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, in the first round. According to Le Figaro, citing a new wave of opinion surveys, Philippe "confirms his upswing but does not lead Jordan Bardella".

First Round Figures

According to the Elabe poll for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche published at the end of March 2026 — the trends of April 12 confirm them — Jordan Bardella would be "largely in the lead" in the first round if the election were held this week. Marine Le Pen, despite her legal troubles, retains a solid electoral base. Édouard Philippe, emphatically re-elected mayor of Le Havre in the municipal elections of March 2026, benefits from a local victory effect that is reflected in national voting intentions. 20 Minutes headlines that Philippe "surges strongly in the polls" while remaining "still behind Bardella and Le Pen".

The Only One Who Can Beat the RN in the Second Round

But Philippe's real asset is revealed in the second round. According to Le Parisien, citing a late March poll, "only Édouard Philippe would be able to defeat the RN in the second round." This scenario — a first round dominated by the RN, a second round winnable only by Philippe — places the former Prime Minister in a unique strategic position. He embodies the figure of the "candidate of last resort," capable of uniting moderate right-wing voters, centrists, and a part of the republican left in an anti-RN front.

Unknowns in the Race

The race for the Élysée remains open, however. Several variables could upset the equation: Marine Le Pen's legal situation (whose trial for embezzling European funds resulted in a first-instance conviction), the potential candidacy of Bruno Retailleau (who has entered the race according to Euronews), and the country's state in April 2027 — inflation linked to the Iranian conflict, energy costs, and social tensions could profoundly alter the political landscape. Édouard Philippe, who has not yet officially declared his candidacy, is undertaking numerous trips and national stances, methodically building his presidential stature.