The ultimatum has arrived. On Saturday, April 5, US President Donald Trump gave Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or the United States would strike Iranian energy infrastructure "with a power the world has never seen." Tehran's response was swift: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called the threat "unbalanced and insane," ironically echoing the religious vocabulary Trump used in his social media post.
In the hours following the rejection of the ultimatum, the Revolutionary Guards launched a salvo of ballistic missiles towards Israel and, a new development, Kuwait – a traditional US ally in the Gulf. Israel's Arrow 3 missile defense system intercepted almost all the projectiles, but Kuwait, less well-equipped, reported impacts on the Ali Al Salem airbase, used by US forces. No casualties were immediately announced.
The escalation marks a turning point in the conflict, now in its sixth week. Until now, exchanges of fire were limited to Iranian territory and Hezbollah positions in Lebanon. By targeting Kuwait, Tehran has deliberately broadened the theater of operations to force the Gulf monarchies to take a side – a strategy that analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) describe as a "desperate but rational calculation."
On the diplomatic front, the window is closing. UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for an "immediate and unconditional ceasefire," while China and Russia requested an emergency meeting of the Security Council for Monday. France, through its Foreign Minister, warned that "any destruction of Iranian oil infrastructure would have catastrophic consequences for the global economy."
The search for the missing American pilot continues in a remote area of southern Iran. An F/A-18 Super Hornet was shot down Thursday over Fars province, and the Pentagon confirmed Saturday that a rescue operation was underway. Tehran claims the pilot is alive and in detention – a claim Washington has not confirmed. The outcome of this affair could determine the course of the coming days.
