Just a few days ago, the US President stated that a peace agreement in the Middle East was "closer than ever." This Tuesday, the United States bombed Iran. It is difficult to find a more perfect illustration of the chronic instability that has characterized this conflict since the outbreak of hostilities in February.

The United States announced on Tuesday that it had carried out strikes described as "proportionate" against Iran, in response to the attack on a US Apache helicopter the previous day over the Strait of Hormuz. This marks a sharp escalation of tensions, while the US President had previously stated that an agreement to end the war in the Middle East was near.

The Context of an Open War

To understand these new strikes, it is necessary to recall the scale of the conflict that has been ongoing since February 28. The Strait of Hormuz has experienced significant geopolitical and economic disruptions since that date, following joint military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran, which notably resulted in the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. In response, Iran launched missile and drone attacks against American bases, Israeli territory, and other Gulf states, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned ships against transiting the strait.

Normally, one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas production transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Since March 1, 16 merchant ships have been targeted by Iranian strikes near the strait. Among them were oil tankers, cargo ships, and tugboats. The International Maritime Organization reports at least seven sailors killed and three missing.

The Escalation of June 9

Tuesday's strikes are therefore part of a dynamic of persistent tensions, punctuated by fragile ceasefires and regular military resumptions. Already on Saturday, June 6, the US military had carried out several strikes on Iranian radar sites, despite the ceasefire between the two countries, while Israel continued to bomb Lebanon. "US forces remain on alert and ready to continue to defend themselves against Iranian aggression," wrote US Central Command.

The situation in Lebanon, meanwhile, continues to deteriorate. Residents of Tyre are fleeing the city en masse after an Israeli bombing killed at least eleven people on Tuesday. The Cedar country, already economically drained, bears some of the direct consequences of a conflict that is playing out far above it.

Diplomacy in Tatters

A draft agreement is currently under negotiation between the United States and Iran, concerning notably the extension of the ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio promised that the final signing could take place "in the coming hours." Tehran hints that the nuclear issue would not be part of this new version. An agreement without nuclear issues: it's like treating the symptom without addressing the disease.

What is striking, observing this sequence from the outside, is the speed at which diplomatic announcements and military strikes follow each other, sometimes within the same 48-hour period. Every declaration of imminent peace is followed by a new armed incident. Every ceasefire is breached before it is solidified.

Editorial Opinion — Théodore Mécanis

The rhetoric of imminent peace coupled with daily strikes is no longer a contradiction – it is a communication strategy. Striking while announcing peace allows for pressure to be maintained without assuming the image of an unreasonable belligerent. The problem is that Lebanese civilians, sailors missing in the Sea of Oman, and economies dependent on Gulf oil do not live in rhetoric. They live in the consequences. The World Cup opens tomorrow in the United States, the host country which is bombing elsewhere simultaneously. History will note this irony with the seriousness it deserves.

Key Takeaways

- "Proportionate" US strikes on Iran on June 9, after the attack on an Apache over Hormuz.

- 16 merchant ships targeted by Iran near the strait since March 1; 7 sailors dead, 3 missing.

- 20% of global oil and LNG transit through Hormuz under normal circumstances.

- In Tyre (Lebanon), 11 dead in an Israeli bombing on Tuesday.

- Marco Rubio announces an agreement "in the coming hours" – without a nuclear component.