Tesla is playing a high-stakes game, and Wall Street is scared. The automaker led by Elon Musk released first-quarter results on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, after the US market close, which were technically better than expected but overshadowed by a bombshell announcement: the group will increase its capital expenditures (capex) to $18 billion for the year 2026, up from the $11 billion initially budgeted in January. The stock, which had closed up 1.4% at $287.30 in regular trading, fell 5.8% in after-hours electronic trading, before partially recovering on Thursday morning to $273.80 (-4.7%).
The Numbers: A Slightly Better-Than-Expected Quarter
Consolidated revenue reached $23.4 billion (+8.2% year-on-year), slightly above the $22.9 billion anticipated by the FactSet consensus. Net profit stood at $1.12 billion, or $0.32 per share, compared to the expected $0.30. The automotive gross margin rose to 17.8% from 16.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025, thanks to the decrease in the cost of LFP batteries supplied by CATL. Vehicle deliveries reached 463,000 units (+5.1%), boosted by the continued success of the updated Model Y and the actual launch of the Cybercab in California since February. The energy division (Powerwall, Megapack) grew by 41% to $3.1 billion.
The Gamble: $18 Billion Capex for Dojo and Cybercab
The strategic bomb lies within the letter to shareholders, published at 10:30 PM GMT. Tesla announced it is raising its investments to $18 billion in 2026, a 64% increase from the initial plan. Three areas concentrate this effort: the construction of the third generation of the Dojo supercomputer in the Gigafactory Texas, aiming for 100 exaflops of computing power dedicated to training autonomy models; the industrial scaling of the Cybercab, with production set to reach 250,000 units annually starting in 2027; and the development of the Optimus humanoid robot, now positioned as 'Elon Musk's first mass-market product for 2028'.
Wall Street Divided
Analysts are reacting with mixed opinions. Dan Ives of Wedbush, traditionally bullish, maintains his target of $415: 'Musk is doing what all CEOs should be doing in uncertain times—he's investing in the future. This is exactly the right time.' Conversely, Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley lowers his target from $380 to $320: 'The free cash flow trajectory is significantly deteriorating in 2026 and 2027. Short-term shareholders will suffer.' In the middle, Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein maintains his 'market-perform' rating at $290: 'Brilliant gamble or value destruction, we'll know in 24 months.'
Elon Musk's Conference Call: 'I'd Rather Lose Shareholders Than Lose the Future'
Elon Musk, whose appearances on quarterly conference calls had become less frequent since 2024, personally participated in the entire call on Wednesday evening, lasting 1 hour and 47 minutes. His most striking statement was: 'I'd rather lose shareholders today than lose the future tomorrow. If you want Coca-Cola returns, buy Coca-Cola. Tesla is a technology bet, not an annuity.' He confirmed a production target of 5 million vehicles in 2027 (compared to 1.8 million in 2025) and the commercialization of the Cybercab robotaxi in 22 US states by the end of 2026. However, the Federal Aviation Administration has not yet validated deployment in California, Arizona, and Texas.
Meanwhile, Chinese Competition
The context makes the announcement even riskier. BYD announced on Tuesday a first-quarter revenue of $27.8 billion, surpassing Tesla for the fourth consecutive quarter. Xiaomi, whose SU7 is a hit in China, has just opened its first European factory in Hamburg. In the European market, Tesla's market share in electric vehicles has fallen to 11.3%, down from 18% three years ago. Competitive pressure is at its peak, and Musk's gamble consists precisely of overcoming it through a technological leap.
Editorial Opinion
The results published by Tesla on Wednesday evening perfectly embody the stock market schizophrenia of the decade. The quarterly figures are objectively good. The strategic trajectory is objectively bold. But the timeframe demanded by shareholders remains desperately short. By raising its capex to $18 billion, Elon Musk is betting that value no longer lies in short-term automotive profitability, but in the algorithmic sovereignty of autonomy and humanoid robotics. If the gamble succeeds, Tesla will become the Apple of the 2030s. If it fails, the group will join the pantheon of companies that missed their transformation due to lack of resources. One thing is certain: Musk has definitively chosen between the status of an automaker and that of a technological adventurer. It is now up to investors to decide which adventure they want to invest their savings in.
Key Takeaways
- Tesla Q1 2026 Revenue: $23.4 billion (+8.2%), Net Profit $1.12 billion, exceeding expectations.
- Annual Capex raised to $18 billion from $11 billion, a 64% increase, for Dojo, Cybercab, and Optimus.
- Tesla stock fell 4.7% to $273.80 on Thursday morning following the announcements.
- Target of 5 million vehicles produced in 2027, robotaxi in 22 states by end of 2026.
- BYD surpasses Tesla in revenue for the 4th consecutive quarter.
