The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its semiannual World Economic Outlook report on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, this year titled "The Global Economy in the Shadow of War." According to Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, cited by Zonebourse, the IMF had anticipated a slight upward revision of its global growth forecast to 3.3% for 2026 before the Middle East conflict. Now, "all roads lead to higher prices and a slowdown in activity."

Three Threats Identified

The report identifies three main risk vectors for the global economy: the energy shock linked to the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, the disruption of global supply chains, and the instability of financial markets. According to L'Économiste Maghrébin, energy-importing countries are particularly vulnerable. The IMF warns that the shock is "global but asymmetric": emerging economies and developing countries, already weakened by the aftermath of the pandemic and rising interest rates, are the most exposed.

Soaring Defense Spending

Chapter 2 of the report, which focuses on defense spending, notes that geopolitical tensions are causing an unprecedented increase in military budgets. The IMF highlights the "macroeconomic consequences and trade-offs" of this trend: each additional percentage point of GDP spent on defense reduces the scope for public investment in education, health, or infrastructure. This dynamic is particularly pronounced in emerging countries.

Reduced Room for Maneuver

The IMF's Managing Director emphasized that central banks have limited room for maneuver to absorb this new shock, following the massive interest rate hikes of 2022-2024. Boursorama reports that Georgieva called for "a swift de-escalation in the Middle East" to avoid a scenario of global stagflation. The report will be presented in detail during the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington this week.