The trading session on Tuesday, April 21, 2026, opened with a sense of waiting across all European markets. At 9:22 AM, the CAC 40 was down 0.06% at 8,327 points, in a laborious attempt at stabilization after the previous day's decline of more than 1%, according to figures reported by Investir – Les Échos. Paris followed a similar pattern to Frankfurt (up 0.43% at the open but falling back to flat by mid-morning), Milan (-0.12%), and Madrid (-0.08%). The overall picture reflects a simple reality: at this stage, traders are no longer sure whether the Iranian issue will lead to a rapid de-escalation or a new phase of military and economic escalation.
Oil edges down, but remains high
In commodity markets, oil recorded a slight decline this Tuesday morning. Brent crude lost 0.8% to $102.40 per barrel, and US WTI fell by 0.9% to $98.15, according to quotes recorded by Zonebourse at 8:25 AM. The market continues to digest weekend announcements that suggested a possible resumption of Iran-US talks in Islamabad – a prospect since questioned by Tehran's statement Tuesday morning. For comparison, Brent crude was still trading around $78 in early March 2026; the current maintenance around $100 represents a historic wealth transfer from consumer to producer countries, estimated by the IEA at $2.8 billion per day.
Tokyo closes higher, against all expectations
In Tokyo, a counter-intuitive session: the Nikkei 225 finished up 0.89% at 59,349 points, thanks in particular to the resilience shown by the Japanese economy in the face of the previous day's magnitude 7.7 earthquake (six injured, minor damage) and the strong quarterly results from Sony, Mitsubishi UFJ, and Tokyo Electron. The broader Topix index, however, lost 0.18% to 3,770 points, weighed down by energy stocks. The rise in Japan marks a striking decoupling from Europe: over a rolling five-day period, the Nikkei has gained 0.96% and 17.82% since January 1st, whereas the CAC 40 has remained practically flat for the year.
Wall Street awaits direction
Across the Atlantic, futures on New York indices were trading flat at the European mid-session, with very modest volume. The Dow Jones is expected around 39,250 points, the S&P 500 around 5,318, and the Nasdaq around 17,240. Traders are particularly scrutinizing tomorrow's Wednesday, April 22nd session, which will see the publication of Tesla's earnings, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting, and the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing activity index. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was stable at 4.38%, indicating that bond markets still anticipate monetary status quo from the Federal Reserve at the May meeting.
The Lecornu factor
In Paris, operators are also closely monitoring Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's end-of-day announcements regarding fuel subsidies. Any significant additional spending – beyond one billion euros – without a parallel freeze on other budget lines would increase pressure on French OATs, whose spread with German Bunds has already widened to 78 basis points on Monday, its highest level since November 2024. Several analysts from Société Générale and BNP Paribas, cited by Investir, recommend their institutional clients to 'temporarily lighten positions in French cyclical stocks' until the full budgetary arbitration is known.
Editorial Opinion
European markets are experiencing a classic moment of paralysis this Tuesday: too much uncertainty to sell decisively, too many risks to buy. This waiting posture could continue for several days, but it masks a cumulative risk. If Iran-US negotiations fail durably, if oil prices rise again above $110, and if France fails to present a credible budget before summer, the combination could trigger a severe correction of 5 to 8% on the CAC 40 by June. Conversely, even the slightest signal of de-escalation – a more conciliatory Iranian statement, successful Pakistani mediation – could unleash a powerful technical rebound. The coming weeks will likely be among the most volatile of the year.
Key Takeaways
- CAC 40 on standby at 8,327 points, slightly down after -1% the previous day.
- Brent at $102.40 per barrel (-0.8%), dominant diplomatic uncertainty.
- Nikkei up 0.89%, Japanese economy resilient after earthquake.
- Wall Street awaiting direction, futures flat ahead of Tesla earnings.
- OAT-Bund spread at 78 basis points, its highest since November 2024.
